that_feel (![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small} that_feel) wrote,@ 2007-10-04 00:37:00 |
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The Ron Paul Gambit
Watching TV you'd barely know that Ron Paul is campaigning, being branded everything from a crazy kook to a YouTube gadfly fad. But people watching the internet know his campaign is the real deal, posting video after video of his large following in state straw polls, followings many politicians could never dream of. And after his impressive fundraising effort in the 3rd quarter it's becoming harder for the Republican political elite to ignore him, but as long as they control the media they're going to try to make the people ignore him by whatever means necessary, even going so far as to move up Primary registration dates in New Hampshire and New York all the way to October 12th in hopes of catching his supporters off guard and preventing them from voting in the primaries. Their tactics are no surprise given their zeal to protect the modus operandi, but unfortunately for them those tactics are doomed to backfire.
What they don't seem to realize yet is that Ron Paul has played out a gambit more clever than they could've ever imagined. By turning to the internet, Ron Paul has found his way out of the "lesser of two evils" problem of voting and turned the tables on his party by drawing an extremely strong and dedicated following from a wide swath of the previously non-voting public. And unlike Howard Dean, the last attempt at an internet candidate, Paul's political reputation, persona and on camera actions are unassailable so the faith of his followers is far less likely to be shaken, as evidenced by his ridiculous $5 million in 3Q funds (a million of which was raised in the final week when he was only shooting for $500,000). What this means is that Paul is bringing phenomenal amounts of fresh voters and money into the political process.
So why is this problematic for the Republican Party? Because contrary to what you see on TV, the Republican Party is very weak, unable to produce a candidate that can simultaneously tow the line on their neoconservative nightmare of an agenda and attract the loyalty of their core constituency. And while they can count on Hillary Clinton, who at this point is pretty much a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination, to continue their devastating foreign policy and all the right aspects of their domestic policy, she and her Democratic House and Senate cronies are sure to further tinker in domestic policy to a point bordering on economic havoc, actions that will run a serious risk of domestic uprisings and government bankruptcy. And to put out a candidate to purposely tank their own party in the election would lead to even more dissension in the ranks, potentially leading to the end of their Middle East adventure anyway. Much as the Republican elite would like to put their faith in Clinton to win if they cannot put a suitable candidate in place, it will ultimately set them back more than it's worth.
The Republican Party's only other choice is to ensure that Hillary has no chance of winning, and the only way to do it is to make sure that their core constituents are all voting for their candidate and to attract more voters into the Republican fold. This is where Ron Paul comes in. He and his fresh faced following are exactly the formidable force the Republican Party needs to defeat Hillary and, to be quite honest, he's the kind of conservative candidate core voters wished they had actually been voting for all these years. But the catch is that Ron Paul's voting constituency is his and his alone; if he doesn't win the nomination his following will not only abandon the Republican vote but may abandon voting entirely and take some of their core with them. This is a situation the Party simply can't afford to have come to fruition, so in the same way the mob plays the public, Paul waltzes onto the scene like the mob lawyer, the guy they absolutely hate to have around but a situation they will hate even more if he's not.
And unless the Republican Party comes up with another idea, this is exactly the reality that they will be forced into. Sacrificing their global empiricism in order to save any kind of face at all with the public in the desperate hope that Paul does not manage to stir the hornet's nest enough in 4 (or 8) years to prevent them from continuing on their conquest once he's gone. And here's hoping he does.
Ron Paul's candidacy is the most significant unifying social and political statement of the internet we're likely to see in our lifetime. Regardless of your political stripe, if you are of the generation that has born witness to the dreams and possibilities that have come true thanks to the internet, you owe it to yourself to give Ron Paul a look, if not your vote. He may not fit with all of your views but he may be one of our last hopes to deflate a Federal government drunk with global "politics as usual".
Watching TV you'd barely know that Ron Paul is campaigning, being branded everything from a crazy kook to a YouTube gadfly fad. But people watching the internet know his campaign is the real deal, posting video after video of his large following in state straw polls, followings many politicians could never dream of. And after his impressive fundraising effort in the 3rd quarter it's becoming harder for the Republican political elite to ignore him, but as long as they control the media they're going to try to make the people ignore him by whatever means necessary, even going so far as to move up Primary registration dates in New Hampshire and New York all the way to October 12th in hopes of catching his supporters off guard and preventing them from voting in the primaries. Their tactics are no surprise given their zeal to protect the modus operandi, but unfortunately for them those tactics are doomed to backfire.
What they don't seem to realize yet is that Ron Paul has played out a gambit more clever than they could've ever imagined. By turning to the internet, Ron Paul has found his way out of the "lesser of two evils" problem of voting and turned the tables on his party by drawing an extremely strong and dedicated following from a wide swath of the previously non-voting public. And unlike Howard Dean, the last attempt at an internet candidate, Paul's political reputation, persona and on camera actions are unassailable so the faith of his followers is far less likely to be shaken, as evidenced by his ridiculous $5 million in 3Q funds (a million of which was raised in the final week when he was only shooting for $500,000). What this means is that Paul is bringing phenomenal amounts of fresh voters and money into the political process.
So why is this problematic for the Republican Party? Because contrary to what you see on TV, the Republican Party is very weak, unable to produce a candidate that can simultaneously tow the line on their neoconservative nightmare of an agenda and attract the loyalty of their core constituency. And while they can count on Hillary Clinton, who at this point is pretty much a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination, to continue their devastating foreign policy and all the right aspects of their domestic policy, she and her Democratic House and Senate cronies are sure to further tinker in domestic policy to a point bordering on economic havoc, actions that will run a serious risk of domestic uprisings and government bankruptcy. And to put out a candidate to purposely tank their own party in the election would lead to even more dissension in the ranks, potentially leading to the end of their Middle East adventure anyway. Much as the Republican elite would like to put their faith in Clinton to win if they cannot put a suitable candidate in place, it will ultimately set them back more than it's worth.
The Republican Party's only other choice is to ensure that Hillary has no chance of winning, and the only way to do it is to make sure that their core constituents are all voting for their candidate and to attract more voters into the Republican fold. This is where Ron Paul comes in. He and his fresh faced following are exactly the formidable force the Republican Party needs to defeat Hillary and, to be quite honest, he's the kind of conservative candidate core voters wished they had actually been voting for all these years. But the catch is that Ron Paul's voting constituency is his and his alone; if he doesn't win the nomination his following will not only abandon the Republican vote but may abandon voting entirely and take some of their core with them. This is a situation the Party simply can't afford to have come to fruition, so in the same way the mob plays the public, Paul waltzes onto the scene like the mob lawyer, the guy they absolutely hate to have around but a situation they will hate even more if he's not.
And unless the Republican Party comes up with another idea, this is exactly the reality that they will be forced into. Sacrificing their global empiricism in order to save any kind of face at all with the public in the desperate hope that Paul does not manage to stir the hornet's nest enough in 4 (or 8) years to prevent them from continuing on their conquest once he's gone. And here's hoping he does.
Ron Paul's candidacy is the most significant unifying social and political statement of the internet we're likely to see in our lifetime. Regardless of your political stripe, if you are of the generation that has born witness to the dreams and possibilities that have come true thanks to the internet, you owe it to yourself to give Ron Paul a look, if not your vote. He may not fit with all of your views but he may be one of our last hopes to deflate a Federal government drunk with global "politics as usual".
